Ten Flat Horses to follow for the 2021 Season

With the National Hunt season gradually coming to a close this year, it is time to somewhat turn our attention to the flat. The Craven meeting at Newmarket is usually a sign that the flat season is approaching quickly and I have decided to compile a list of ten horses that I feel it will be prudent to follow throughout the season.

Between the ten, there is hopefully a nice blend of horses. I am hoping for some to develop into Group performers, while others perhaps will see their day in the sun in handicaps. As is always the case with this type of list, I would love to see each horse on this list register a win in this season. Hopefully they all keep fit and sound, and can develop on their promise.

The list has been compiled in alphabetical order.

A Case of You

(Hot Streak/Karjera) - 3YO Colt

Adrian McGuiness / Gary Devlin

Form: 311-10

Notable Entries: 2000 Guineas, Commonwealth Cup (33/1 - 0.5 Pt EW)

OR: 108

A Case of You comes top of the list due to alphabetical order but would not have been far off top of this list in any matter. Up until Sunday at Leopardstown, he was probably the horse I was most looking forward to watching throughout the turf season. However, he blotted his copybook at Leopardstown and will have to put those issues to bed if he is to progress into the type of Group performer I know he could be.

A Case of You started off his life with John McConnell, who despite his continued rise in the training ranks, wouldn’t be associated with major amounts of 2YO success. Before his Bellewstown debut, there had been whispers that this might indeed be a decent horse with a bit of ability. He ran a very good race over a mile, showing plenty of speed before weakening late on to finish third. It looked like a maiden win should be within the realms of possibility sooner rather than later. With this in mind, he turned out only ten days later at Down Royal, stepping back down to 7f this time round. I backed him that day at a price of around 7/2 in the morning, thinking that the price would only go one way. I was right and wrong at the same time. The price went one way, drifting like a barge out to a SP of 15/2. There is a hopeless phrase in horse racing that ‘a horse doesn’t know he’s drifting’, and for once this old wives tale was to come true. A Case of You stormed clear under Colin Keane to win very cosily on the line by 2 and a half lengths. It was a performance of substance and again showed off that there was plenty more speed under the bonnet than what was obviously first thought of. It was all systems go for John McConnell to have a crack at a Group Race with this talented young horse, and he did so - winning the Anglesey Stakes (Group 3 at the Curragh) in decisive fashion.

Step forward to March this year, and it was announced that Gary Devlin had splashed out to bring this horse under his ownership, and the horse was moved to Adrian McGuinness in the process. McGuiness, who won a Group 2 this year with his yard flag bearer, Bowerman, is more than entitled to get a few nicer types into his yard. He started off this season at Dundalk, in a conditions race over 6f, and showed some blistering speed to pulverise a good field into the ground by almost 4 lengths. It was a performance of a horse going places and connections wasted no time in sending this horse to a Guineas trial at Leopardstown last weekend. Having been sent off 9/4 favourite, everything that could go wrong, did go wrong. He was far too keen, he hung right on the tight Leopardstown bends and eventually came stone last. This was a shuddering jolt in what had otherwise been such a progressive profile throughout his career.

I think it will prove to be profitable to forgive that performance and I suspect we will see him back sprinting sooner rather than later. Back over 6f on a straight track will see this horse at his best, and I still expect him to turn into a proper Group horse this year and given the connections, I would love this horse to turn into a star. I will be sticking by his side for the majority of the year, and hoping that under the careful guidance of Ado McGuinness, he can recapture his best form and put his right foot forward.

Alkumait

(Showcasing/Suelita) - 3YO Colt

Marcus Tregoning / Shadwell Estate Company Ltd.

Form: 4110-

Notable Entries: Greenham Stakes, Duke of York Stakes

OR: 113

It was terrible news to see the passing of Hamdan Al Maktoum recently, who provided an almighty amount for the sport of horse racing. However, it looks like his legacy will be carried forward and it would be lovely for some of the horses he left behind to provide some great results this summer in his memory. Alkumait, trained by Margus Tregoning, could well be one of them that could step up in class, especially over shorter trips.

A Colt by Showcasing, the same sire of this trainer’s star, Mohaather, Alkumait showed himself off to be more than useful last year in a light two year old campaign. He had made his debut at Newbury over the 6f trip and showed himself capable, running on under a patient ride to finish fourth, closest at the line. The front two in that race (Royal Scimitar & Line of Departure) finished the season rated in the high 90s, so to finish so close to them on his first start was a positive introduction. However, he further enhanced his reputation when dispensing of Tawleed at Goodwood on his second start in a strong looking maiden. He won by 2 lengths that day in impressive fashion (2nd, 5th, 8th & 9th enhanced form), he was ready for a step up into stakes company after that effort and he would get that chance in due course throughout the year.

He returned to the six furlong course at Newbury for the Mill Reef, where some highly regarded sorts such as Fivethousandtoone, Rhythm Master and Bahrain Pride all well respected going into that encounter. What Alkumait showed that day was a thing of beauty, and under a uber confident Jim Crowley, he came from last to first to win very snugly on the line from Fivethousandtoone and Rhythm Master. The right horses were in behind him and the manner of the victory showed off a lot of natural ability and more importantly, a lot of natural speed. I will be hoping that the formline of the Mill Reef can stand the test of time this season, as I have regarded it quite highly in my estimations. He went on to contest the Dewhurst over 7f on soft ground on his final start of the season, and it was quite apparent from early doors that the horse was detesting the softer surface, and was eased right out by Jim Crowley. That was the right option for this horse, as it will have given him a chance to recover and strengthen up over the winter.

He looks like a type that has the speed for 6f but it wouldn’t surprise to see him become effective over 7, especially on a bit of nicer ground that the summer should provide. He certainly is one to keep the right side of and I suspect given his trainer, you will always get a slightly bigger price than he deserves to be when he runs. I eagerly await his return to action soon!

Bielsa

(Invincible Spirit/Bourbon Ball) - 6YO Gelding

Kevin Ryan / King Power Racing

Form: 1/1101/05595-

Notable Entries: -

OR: 96

I will preface this piece by confirming that I am not a Leeds fan and therefore despite my respect for Marcelo Bielsa, this selection dives a little deeper than the quirky but highly talented Argentinian manager. In some ways, Bielsa the horse has a similarity or two, quirky but talented. Even though he has registered four career successes in his chequered career so far, I am convinced we still haven’t seen the best of this horse yet over sprint handicap trips. I thought last year might be his year to develop into a very useful type in these big flat handicaps, but perhaps the summer of 2021 is when we get a bit of return on our investment.

It has obviously not been plain sailing for Bielsa as a horse, as it took Kevin Ryan and team till October of his three year old career to finally see this horse out, when winning a maiden at Redcar over 6f. There was then a 200 day break before seeing him out again at Doncaster, and he collected again and the same process was repeated when collecting at Thirsk in late August 2019. Three runs for Bielsa at this stage, three wins. He had always acquired himself a rating of 93 from the assessor and started off favourite for a competitive handicap at Doncaster. It went wrong that day but he duly got his reward next time out, when winning a similarity competitive handicap by 2 lengths. This raised him to a mark of 101 heading into last season, which in truth was perhaps a shade high to be starting off with, and so it proved.

Last year was a tricky year for Bielsa, slightly below stakes class and yet having to shoulder big weights in these competitive 20/30 runner handicaps at some of the big meetings. He was well down the field in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot, despite being sent off favourite and struggled in a conditions event at Haydock after that. Connections decided that wind surgery was the best option for this horse, which he underwent in the middle of the summer. He reappeared to disappoint again at Haydock, but he posted very positive efforts in the Ayr Gold Cup and the Sprint Trophy at York at the backend of the season. He was beaten 3L & 4L in those respective efforts and shaped like a return to a winning mark was within sight.

He has now been dropped back to a mark of 96, which is only 3 pounds higher than his last winning mark from late 2019. I believe he should be very competitive off this sort of mark this summer and I would be disappointed if he was not to come very close to winning a valuable sprint handicap throughout the year. Just like his namesake in charge of Leeds, I am hoping 2021 is where we see ourselves a Bielsa masterclass on the track.

Dance Jupiter

(Kingsbarns/Mascara) - 5YO Gelding

Joseph O’Brien / Mrs C C Regalado-Gonzalez

Form: 51/2331-

Notable Entries: Alleged Stakes, Mooresbridge Stakes, Tattersalls Gold Cup

OR: 101

I am extremely excited to see the development of Dance Jupiter this year over intermediate trips this summer, as I believe this horse could well make up into a well above average sort for Joseph O’Brien. Having been acquired from John Kiely, who won a maiden, beating a horse called Patrick Sarsfield in the process, Joseph embarked on a handicap route for this horse last year with varying degrees of success.

The aforementioned Patrick Sarsfield, who I loved last season and turned into a solid Group performer over 10f, is what I hope this horse might end up producing by the end of the season. There are some similarities between the two horses, connections aside. Slow burning horses who have obviously been backward in their progression at earlier stages of their career. However, the performance of Dance Jupiter at Naas at the backend season meeting over 10f, was a coming of age performance off a mark of 95. He cantered through the race like a very good horse, with Dylan Browne McMonagle having the simple pleasure of steering him home 2 lengths clear of McCabe. This has led the horse to be risen to a mark of 101, and as a result, not far off group company.

Looking at his entries and looking at Joseph O’Brien’s early season stable tour, this horse will be campaigned like a good one this year. Dance Jupiter had been a finger burner throughout last year, having been turned over at short prices in three handicaps before the Naas breakthrough. However, the Naas run was a first step up in trip and it looks like this horse has been crying out for the 10f trip for a while now, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see this horse get a mile and a half in time this season. However, starting over 10 is a solid move and it will be interesting to see how he fares on seasonal debut if he turns up in the Alleged (Group 3). Joseph alluded to this horse wanting a small ease under foot, so the good to soft ground that will likely be coming his way this early in the year should be right up his street.

I am hoping that Dance Jupiter can follow in the footsteps of Patrick Sarsfield, and be a good money spinner for connections this year and potentially develop into a Group 2 / Group 3 horse with time. This might be the year where Dance Jupiter properly comes of age.

Flor De La Luna

(Sea the Moon/Fresa) - 4YO Filly

Jessica Harrington / Miss K Rausing

Form: P1-2

Notable Entries: Vintage Crop Stakes

OR: 102

I don’t want to show too much bias in terms of where each one of these ten places on my list overall, but I would be lying to say that this horse wasn’t right at the top of the list. Quite simply put, I think she could be an absolute superstar and I am super excited to see her progression this year, hoping that she can stay sound for a good crack at it this season. In her short career so far, she has shown some clear signs of star quality and if improving even more for a bit of racing, she should be massively competitive at every level.

By leading sire Sea the Moon, who the Harrington’s have enjoyed plenty of success with his progeny (Alpine Star last year), this filly was always held in high regard by the team. Harrington has had a great knack with these fillies in recent years, given the success of Alpha Centauri, Albigna, Alpine Star and Millisle to name a couple of Group 1 winners, so the fact this horse is being held in such regard is surely a tip in itself. However, they are lucky to have her still with them after what was a dreadful start to her racing career. Going off odds on favourite for a maiden at Roscommon in June, Shane Foley had to abruptly pull this filly up within the first furlong, with what looked like a bad injury.

She was given plenty of time off and only reappeared in October in a backend maiden at the Curragh over 1m4f. It wasn’t the strongest maiden for the track standards, but she showed a blistering turn of foot from the front to burn them all off, winning by a commanding three lengths at the line. She showed a kink to wander left slightly under pressure, which announced itself more prominently at Cork the last day, but she was incredibly impressive for a filly of such inexperience.

The fact that the Harrington team threw this filly into the Noblesse at Cork this April despite only having one proper run under her belt was a sign of confidence. She defied a major market drift on the day to run another stormer from the front, galloping in a remorseless fashion to the line. However, just when it looked like she would land the listed race with two furlongs to go, she swerved violently to her left under pressure. Shane Foley almost had to stop riding in the process, and lost considerable momentum. The race was lost but she battled back in a tenacious manner to get back within a length and a half from Moll, a nice type from the Paddy Twomey stable.

Going left handed might help this filly’s kink, but if she can iron that quirk out of her system, she is a filly of the highest quality. I look forward to her making her presence felt in Group Races over 1m4f+ this season, exciting type.

Hurricane Lane

(Frankel/Gale Force) - 3YO Colt

Charlie Appleby / Godolphin

Form: 1-

Notable Entries: Dante Stakes, Cazoo Derby (33/1 - 0.5 Pt EW)

OR: -

I’m taking more of a punt than anything on this Frankel colt as potentially one that might be flying under the radar for a Charlie Appleby team who have an embarrassment of riches this year. There are plenty of potential superstars in the yard this year so it was hard to pinpoint one, but Hurricane Lane, who showed a willing attitude to win a backend Newmarket maiden is who I have ended up landing on.

Going into the 3YO campaigns of so many of these well bred colt’s, I try to scour the bankend races at the likes of Newmarket, Newbury, Leopardstown and the Curragh - desperately searching for something to pass by. I was quite taken by Hurricane Lane, who made his debut on heavy ground in a five runner maiden at Newmarket in late October. Over a mile, he was outpaced and ridden along at the 3 furlong pole, but knuckled down well to win it comfortably at the line, two lengths being the official winning margin. He beat Ed Walker's Parachute (form boosted) in the process and earned himself a RPR of 88. RPR’s are certainly not the be all and end all but it was nice to see him record a positive figure on what surely would not have been ideal ground conditions.

I am quite taken by the entries that he has been given, with the Dante & Derby both in there. It would indicate that they hold the horse in some sort of regard and early signs are that he may reappear in a conditions race in Newbury this week. It looks based off his first start that staying will be his game and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him need the entirety of a mile and a half by the end of the season, as his breeding would suggest that stamina should be of no issue to him.

He showed a likeable attitude on debut and is regally bred, so any amount of improvement could be under the bonnet for Hurricane Lane. There are many more variables that he will have to overcome throughout the year, but I’m excited to see how he fares and whether he will be a horse with a big future or not.

Innisfree

(Galileo/Palace) - 4YO Colt

Aidan O’Brien / D Smith & Mrs J Magnier & M Tabor & Mrs A M O'Brien

Form: 2112/

Notable Entries: Alleged Stakes, Lockinge, Tattersalls Gold Cup, Coronation Cup

OR: 108

The forgotten horse at Ballydoyle? It could be a bold statement but I think it could be. Innisfree, who was so promising in his 2YO campaign will return this summer as a 4YO, and hopefully the engine may still be intact. It’s nearly impossible to find a dark horse in O’Brien’s string, the whole yard is a who’s who of regally bred colts and fillies, all with the world at their fingertips. O’Brien has been bullish about a few this year, with Santa Barbara and Bolshoi Ballet being at the top of that list. However, everyone has already heard of that hype and I had to try and find a horse with slightly less limelight on him.

In truth, I was a big believer that Innisfree was going to become O’Brien’s number one Derby horse last year, after such a beautiful 2YO campaign. Having come second to Year of the Tiger in a maiden, he beat the Dermot Weld trained, Shekhem (unraced since also), by a nose in maiden at Galway and a neck in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes at the Curragh. The second of those efforts can be upgraded, as it took place on poor ground and he conceded first run to the runner-up. He then went to the rearranged Vertem Futurity Trophy at Newcastle on the all-weather, when posting a highly credible second to Kameko. The form was boosted throughout the year with Kameko winning the 2000 Guineas, and Mogul going on to win two Group 1s throughout the season. We haven’t seen Innisfree since.

It was announced early last year that he was proving hard to get fit and the decision was made half way through the season to pull stumps and let him mature in his own time, this could prove to be a blessing in disguise. As he has been missing for a while, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see this horse need his first couple of outings back on the track, but he may well prove to be a horse worth siding with later on in the season when the ground is nice.

I fired a few blank ante-post slips on him for the Derby last year and in some ways, I want him to come back and prove to both myself & his fellow fans that we were right about the engine being there. He is a beautifully bred horse, as to be expected given the connections, and it seems like it will be 10/12f on better ground where we will see him to best effect. Hopefully, given the patience they have shown, connections will be rewarded with a very nice older horse to go to war with this season.

Khaloosy

(Dubawi/Elshaadin) - 4YO Gelding

Roger Varian / Shadwell Estate Company Ltd.

Form: 21/1339-

Notable Entries: -

OR: 109

Oh Khaloosy...Where did it all go wrong last year? When this striking grey sauntered into the lead in the Britannia at Royal Ascot, I could not believe what I was watching - surely a horse isn’t doing this as easily as it seems. Khaloosy had just pulverised one of the hardest handicaps of the year by over four lengths. The second, Finest Sound, was four lengths clear of third. Myself, and most others I assume, presumed that Group Races would not just be on the agenda, but a certainty to go and collect after that effort at Ascot. However, it all went wrong and Khaloosy comes into his 4YO campaign this year, with a point to prove.

Khaloosy went into the Britannia last year off a mark of 94 and the sublime effort he put in would see the handicapper react by raising him 17 pounds, to a mark of 111. Unlike some of the other moves made by the assessor in recent years, this one seemed justifiable at the time. However, the wheels came off on Khaloosy’s season after it, and he was beaten three times as favourite, twice in Group 3 company and once in Group 2 company. You could make excuses if you wanted to, the ground was firmer than ideal at Goodwood, the Haydock run wasn’t bad given how keen he was and he burst a blood vessel at Newmarket. However, it was all desperately disappointing given the style of his Ascot handicap victory.

Having been given some time off, Khaloosy will return this year as a gelded horse, which is probably no harm, and will hopefully be able to make some building blocks into the road to recovery. He seems best with a dig under foot at around the distance of a mile, and can hopefully improve again this year to land that all important Group contest. I know many people had written him off after his last run at Newmarket, and he was a finger burner of the highest degree last year, but I wanted him to succeed last year and it’s no different this time around. I think he could still be a nice horse.

He doesn’t have any notable early season entries yet but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him starting off perhaps at Listed level over a mile, and taking it from there. This horse could do with some confidence, so it wouldn’t come as a shock to see him get an easy time of things on his first few starts back. After that, hopefully he can get to the table everyone expected him to rise to last year.

Roca Roma

(Australia/Lucy Diamonds) - 4YO Filly

Ger Lyons / Roca Partnership

Form: 2/1501-

Notable Entries: -

OR: 97

Another horse that I am going to take a punt on returning to action this year is Roca Roma, a talented filly from the Ger Lyons team. Roca Roma has always been held in pretty high regard by this team, and if running again this season, there is certainly some unfinished business for her to complete on the track. Having not been seen since August 2020, it would indicate that she hasn’t been the most straightforward to train, but there is plenty of ability there when asked so I’m hopeful that she might return and land a few nice races.

Roca Roma only raced the once as a 2YO, when running a superb race in second in a backend maiden at Leopardstown. She was inexperienced that day and finished off her race very well to be nearest at the finish. She was given time off throughout the winter and was immediately entered for the Irish 1000 Guineas. She was a late scratch from the race due to ground but was quietly fancied by some and the fact she was being pitched in there would indicate the regard she was being held in. Instead, she went to Gowran Park to collect in maiden company at odds on, that was no more than a piece of work and dismissed an okay field by two and a half lengths.

Connections then decided to roll the dice, and sent this filly into the Pretty Polly Stakes as a 3YO against some older and classier types. She was last of five that day, which was to be expected given the standard of the opposition. She then went back into Listed company next time out at Killarney, and a lot was expected of her at 4/1. However, she never travelled with any sort of enthusiasm and ended up finishing three from the rear. At this point, connections had to resort to handicap company and she returned to Leopardstown, where her good run as a 2YO had been held. Over the same C&D, she scored on handicap debut off a mark of 90 on ground which would have been slightly deeper than ideal I suspect. She was raised seven pounds by the assessor for that effort and we are yet to see her since.

I would imagine that if connections were to come to the well again for a 4YO campaign, that a mark of 97 was not out of sight whatsoever. In fact, I would be disappointed if she wasn’t to land a blow or two at pattern level in the future if she was to progress from three to four. She is quite exciting and I hope that connections remain faithful to her and that she can show her class this year.

Third Kingdom

(Make Believe/Spring In the Air) - 3YO Colt

John & Thady Gosden / Prince A A Faisal

Form: 331-

Notable Entries: Irish 2000 Guineas

OR: 88

Last but not least on the list is Third Kingdom, who could well be another nice type for the Gosden/Prince Faisal partnership. Having had such a profitable winter with Mishriff, who has soared to new heights around the globe, they will be looking to produce another good type this summer in the shape of Third Kingdom. Similar to the majority of these trainers, there was an abundance of talented horses that could have been selected from the Gosden yard, but I have decided to sway towards the 3yo colt, Third Kingdom, as I am particularly interested in a piece of form he produced at Sandown last season.

Third Kingdom was one of Gosden’s first 2YO’s to appear last year, when going off joint favourite in a six furlong novice at Newcastle soon after racing’s resumption. He was green as grass that day on his first day out, and showed a fair level of ability to finish third, despite not being given a hard time by Rab Havlin. That experience would have assisted the horse no end, and he then went on to Sandown to contest a very hot 7f maiden. He went off second fav that day and once again was booked into the third, behind Etonian and One Ruler. The fact that those two horses finished the season in between the ratings of 108-111, would indicate that Third Kingdom’s mark of 88, should they want to exploit it, is more than feasible.

Third Kingdom returned to Newcastle two months later and broke his maiden tag in impressive fashion. He was allowed to bowl along in front that day and despite being long odds on, made anyone taking the skimpy odds very much nerve free with a convincing win. It was nice to see him break his maiden as a 2YO and he goes into his three year old campaign with a lot of untapped potential. Given he has a mark of 88, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see this horse line up in a handicap first time out, of which he should be very well in, as I believe his future lies in group races down the line. He has been given a speculative entry for the Irish 2000 Guineas, and although that may be a step too far this early in his career - I wouldn’t rule him out contesting Group 1s this season.

That Sandown form was one of the best maidens of the season in England and Third Kingdom should more than pay his way this season given for expected improvement from two to three. He is potentially one of the best handicapped horses in the country based on that form alone, so it will be interesting to see whether they decide to exploit that or start him off in pattern company. Either way, he should be a lovely type of horse for the connections of the superb Mishriff.