Cheltenham Festival Day Two Preview - 2021

A continuation of the blog posts that are accompanying the Youtube videos, for anyone who may enjoy reading more than listening.

Ballymore Novices Hurdle (2m5f)

One of the more intriguing races of the week, and would be the best standard novice hurdle of the year. Three very classy sorts top the market in what could be a massive burn-up between all three. These three horses are Gaillard du Mesnil, Bob Olinger and Bravemansgame. All of these are coming straight into this race having posted sound efforts in their respective Grade 1 races. This leaves it very tricky to see which form is the strongest and therefore the best betting proposition.

I will start with Gaillard Du Mesnil, who was expensively purchased by the Donnelly’s and sent to Willie Mullins, having shown distinct promise in France. That being said, he was a shade disappointing on his Irish debut. Sent off a warm order for his maiden hurdle, he was easily dispensed with by Holymacopony, who has failed to fire in two starts since. The Mullins inmate has improved an awful lot for that first outing and punters retained the faith when sending him off a warm favourite in a competitive maiden hurdle at Leopardstown at Christmas. He duly obliged, accounting easily for Mr Incredible & Magic Daze, who have both gone on to win impressively. However, he bettered that performance again when winning the Nathaniel Lacy at the DRF by five lengths. If you were being critical, all of his main rivals in that race would be more Albert Bartlett types rather than Ballymore horses, and therefore duly should have had more gears for them. He is more than entitled to be near the top of the betting but I don’t think he should be 3/1 and at the head of the betting. I would be keen to take him on.

Next in the betting is Bob Olinger, a really likeable horse for Henry De Bromhead and Robcour. There is nothing to not like about this horse, he is a big raw individual, who travels well and jumps superb. He went a little bit under the radar last year when winning a Gowran bumper a week before Cheltenham, but people haven’t missed him this year. He reappeared when given the tough task of facing Ferny Hollow in a maiden hurdle over 2 miles. He duly didn’t quite have the gears to stay with the Champion Bumper winner, but he has duly made up for this since. He won a Navan maiden beating Dunboyne (form franked) and won the Lawlors of Naas Novice Hurdle impressively, putting a good field to the sword in decisive fashion. He holds strong claims and if I wasn’t quite so in love with my selection for this race, he would rate a massive chance and a horse I’m still continuing to think about backing.

However, it will take a lot of convincing to get me away from BRAVEMANSGAME, who quite simply, looks like some tool of a horse. The Paul Nicholls trained horse is another fine specimen, and it wasn’t a surprise to see this horse struggle as a bumper performer. He has found his niche over hurdles though and after a very encouraging second to Soaring Glory on reappearance, he has been transformed by front running tactics. He trounced a solid field at Exeter before winning impressively at Newbury twice in a row. The second time was the Challow Hurdle, in which he wiped his hands of Star Gate, The Glancing Queen and Wilde About Oscar by ten lengths. That was an incredible performance and one that should have him as favourite for this race. People will bandy about the Challow Hurdle stats, but rarely has the race been won in this fashion - it was a destruction, earning him lofty comparisons to Denman. He looks like a monster and at 9/2, I think he should be a point or two shorter.

If I’m being honest, I would be very shocked if the winner wasn’t to come from these three and therefore it doesn’t look like a great heat for Each Way betting. Bear Ghylls doesn’t jump well enough to be considered a lively challenger, while Blue Lord looks more likely to turn up in the Supreme.

Selection: Bravemansgame (9/2)

Big Danger: Bob Olinger

Brown Advisory Novices Chase (3m)

Rarely does one go into this race with such lofty expectations over one singular horse. That horse is Monkfish, who has been a breath of fresh air into the staying chasing ranks this season with his polished jumping and immaculate running style proving to be a joy to watch.

Having won the Albert Bartlett at last year’s festival, few people could have imagined the heights that Monkfish was about to scale this year as a chaser. It has been like watching a duck take to water. He won his beginners comfortably from OntheRopes, Sams Profile and Diol Ker. That was impressive, but it didn’t even begin to tell us what we were to expect in his next two starts. His growing rivalry with the smart, Latest Exhibition, has been one of the strongest matchups of the year. This was seen at Leopardstown at Christmas, when the two were involved in a burn up from three out to the line. Monkfish managed to repel the Paul Nolan horse, with a smart turn of foot from the back of the last. He then went on to confirm that form yet again with a mesmerizing performance in the Flogas Novice Chase, where he beat Latest Exhibition, Andy Dufrense and Asterion Forlonge without breaking sweat. These performances have earmarked him down as a special horse who will take a lot of beating in the Brown Advisory. However, he is now odds on, which reflects his chances. Therefore, I don’t believe he’s a betting proposition a month out from the race.

At the start of the season, I was all over Latest Exhibition for this race and had no hesitation in putting him up at 16/1 for this race back in September. If it wasn’t for a certain Monkfish, this horse would currently be a heavy favourite for this race. However, Monkfish does exist, and as a result he may not even attend the festival this year, which would be a massive shame for a horse of his ability. He has only won one race this season though, which is a harsh statistic. He never fails to run his race though and the record of not finishing outside the first two in any of his races provides testament to his consistency. I would love to see him pitch in against Monkfish again here, with the adage of ‘not being afraid of one horse’ having to be applied. He is 3-0 down to Monkfish in their meetings but the closest was at Cheltenham Festival last year, so there is small cause for optimism that the better ground at Prestbury Park might just unlock a few lengths. It would need to for him to turn the tables with his old adversary.

Royalle Pagaille is next in the betting, but similar comments apply to him that I said for his chances in the National Hunt Chase. I would say this is the least likely option for the Venetia Williams trained horse, with Rich Ricci unlikely to shoot two of his strongest bullets in the same race. I would say the most likely destination for Royale Pagaille is the Gold Cup, as he’s an experienced horse. As a result, I wouldn’t be considering him for this race. Eklat De Rire is a more likely option for this race, especially after the recent news that he’s been scratched from the NH Chase. De Bromhead doesn’t seem to like that staying novice race as an option and it would be no surprise to see this horse rock up to this. He’s transformed himself this season over fences, when winning a Punchestown Beginners nicely before accounting for some smart rivals in Escaria Ten and Pencilfulloflead in the Grade 3 at Naas. He jumped impeccably in both races, and despite a lack of experience - he would have to go here with an each way chance. That lack of experience may just find him out from a winning perspective, but he is a lovely horse with a big future ahead of him.

The English challenge in this race shouldn’t be overlooked and in the shape of The Big Breakaway and Next Destination, they have viable each way contenders. The Big Breakaway brings a lot of potential to the table, without particularly realizing much of it yet. Having finish fourth in the Ballymore Novices last year, when very raw throughout the race, he was expected to take giant strides over fences this year. He started well, winning a 3 mile novice around Cheltenham - but the wheels have ever so slightly fallen off since then, and his jumping has come under pressure. It seemed a bizarre thought to drop this horse back in trip at Exeter, and it backfired on the Tizzard team when getting beaten at long odds on at Exeter. He went back up in trip in the Kauto Star at Kempton, and despite jumping poorly, put in an admirable performance in second. I thought that was a good effort in the circumstances and would hold a small each way chance back at Cheltenham. Next Destination is one of the few horses that has at least maintained his form on the back of a switch from Willie Mullins to Paul Nicholls. He won a Grade 2 Novice Chase on chasing and stable debut at Newbury, but that form is open to a lot of questions. He went on to win again at Warwick, again at graded level - when accounting for the perennial nearly horse this year, Fiddlerontheroof. He would have to improve to have his chance in this.

I have backed Latest Exhibition early in the season as previously stated and I am more than willing to let this bet settle. Monkfish looks quite clearly the standard bearer and the one to beat, but I won’t be advising him so far away from the Festival at odds on. Latest Exhibition would more than look like a rock solid each way bet if he does turn up here, and I really hope he does. Eklat De Rire is also of strong interest in perhaps the ‘betting without’ Monkfish market.

Selection: Antepost - Latest Exhibition (16/1) EW

Champion Chase (2m)

For many, leading up to last year’s Festival, this was the best race of the week. However, it quite quickly fell apart and ended up being a major anti-climax come the day. One of the reasons for this was the last minute withdrawal of Chacun Pour Soi, who stood on a stone the morning of the race - and missed the race in the cruelest of ways. He is back this year for vengeance, and for the good of horse racing - you would want him to get here in one piece and see just how good he is.

Chacun Pour Soi is a phenomenal horse, plain and simple. Having been brought over from France, it took the guts of three years for Willie Mullins to finally get this horse on the track, just showing how fragile he must have been. However, I was lucky enough to be at Naas when this horse made his Irish debut back in March 2019. It was an ordinary beginners chase, but the way he did it that day was to show off just how talented he could be. He demolished the field by 32 lengths, jumping superbly - especially down the back at Naas. He then went on from that straight to the Punchestown festival to face off against that year’s Arkle & Marsh winners, Duc Des Genievres and Defi Du Seuil. What he did that day was extraordinary, when defying a lot of inexperience to win cosily at the line by five lengths. Last year, we only saw him twice. He was turned over by A Plus Tard on reappearance, when in need of the run before beating Min convincingly at the DRF. This year, he has been simply flawless. He looked in need of his run when getting down for the Hilly Way in Cork, but the last twice at Leopardstown has been sheer masterclasses in 2 mile chasing. He possibly got to the front too soon at Christmas, when dispatching Notebook and Put the Kettle On. The Dublin Chase was more like what we hoped might have always been there with this horse. Having sat in behind an honest gallop set by solid yardsticks in Notebook and Fakir D'Oudairies, he swooped to take over at the last to sprint clear - hitting the line as hard as he ever has in Ireland. It was phenomenal and if he is to back these efforts up - he will win. I won’t be backing him right now at his odds given his fragility record, but I would back him on the day easily - I think he is lightyears ahead of everything else in this division.

Next in the market is Altior, the former brilliant 2 mile chaser for Nicky Henderson. He is at 8/1 in this and as much as this horse will go down as one of the modern day greats, I couldn’t be touching it. It’s hard not to think that the sun has finally begun to set on Altior’s illustrious career. People will identify the clash against Cyrname as the time that it changed, however I have a feeling it was the previous year’s Champion Chase that took a lot out of him in the first place. He paddled home that day, beating Politologue and Sceau Royal in the process, which he should have done in a more impressive fashion based on what he had already achieved. Last year, Altior was beaten by Cyrname before beating Dynamite Dollars at Newbury. He missed the Champion Chase at late notice, where Henderson didn’t believe he was quite right to do himself justice, and it’s been that case again from then till now. We’ve only seen him once this year, when getting beaten by Nube Negra at Kempton. He was off the bridle almost all the way that day and it would take a much braver man than me to back him for the Champion Chase after that one run.

Politologue is next in at 9s and is probably the best each way bet in this, as I simply can’t see him out of the frame. Last year’s winner of this race has a likeable ‘point and shoot’ style of running. He usually runs to form, and that form will leave him short against top class rivals, but would beat horses not performing. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to run a big race and come second to Chacun Pour Soi. Other horses at bigger prices include Nube Negra, First Flow and Put the Kettle On. Nube Negra beat Altior at Kempton, but that was his only run this year as well and it’s hard to know whether that was a fluke or not. Based on his previous performances at other tracks, Aintree may see him to slightly better effect - despite coming third in the Fred Winter a few years ago. First Flow has been a remarkable horse this year, and just keeps winning races. He put up a career best by some way when winning the Clarence House at Ascot, devouring the field from the front under a typically positive David Bass ride. He would need heavy ground at Cheltenham to have any chance in this and I’d be shocked if he got exactly what he required to land a meaningful blow. Put the Kettle On is a solid option and one who could also fill the frame in this. Unlike some, we know that this game mare loves running around Cheltenham, winning three times from three at the track, including last year’s Arkle. She would likely find a couple too good in this in all known form, but if she improves for the return to Cheltenham again, she has genuine place possibilities.

I’d love for Chacun Pour Soi to devour these, and I think he wins if he gets there. However, he is not a betting proposition at this stage. Therefore, I will be leaving this race from a betting point of view right now. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Chacun beat Politologue and Put the Kettle On.

No Selection.

Cross Country Chase (3m6f)

This isn’t a race that does it for me and must be the race of the festival that I have looked at the least. However, you have two star horses for Cross Country circles in Easysland and Tiger Roll. Tiger Roll is potentially running in this before another tilt at the National, but he was denied convincely by the french raider last year and one must question whether he is quite the same horse that he used to be. Easysland, who romped this race last year - has to come here fresh off the back of one under par performance at the November meeting. As a result, does something have a chance at a bigger price in this?

Easysland is the standard bearer on current form and has just been allocated top weight for the Grand National if he was to go down that route after this race. That is probably a fair assessment if you take his win in this race last year at face value. He was very impressive that day on very tacky ground, and it does seem that heavy ground sees this horse at his best. His preparation this year has not been as ideal though. As previously mentioned, he ran a sub par race at the November meeting when shouldering a tonne of weight and less than ideal ground conditions. That performance can obviously be upgraded, but his lack of a run since would slightly temper your enthusiasm. It’s hard to know what to expect of him this year but the vibes from the yard indicate that he’s turning the corner back to fitness and should be primed to run a huge race yet again. Will I be backing him at the odds he is though? No, I won’t.

Then we have Tiger Roll, a festival legend. He is a horse that you can’t help but love, with his two Grand National wins the icing on the cake of four Festival wins. However, it is hard to know whether the engine is quite there like it used to be. Last year, he was well beaten into second in this race - which was an honourable effort especially on ground which wouldn’t have suited him. This being said, he will need a return to better ground to unlock an awful lot of improvement on his November run, which indicated that the petrol gauge was well and truly ticking into the red. He never travelled that day and was pulled up before half-way. In years gone by, we have seen Festival greats depart the scene having pulled up at Cheltenham, and that is not beyond the bounds of possibility with Tiger Roll. However, if coming back to his best, he has the winning of this race and is probably a sentimental bet more than most.

Potters Corner has long since been a ‘wiseguys’ each way angle to this race, resulting in him being in and around 7/1 for this race. However, despite his admirable wins in the Midlands & Welsh National in recent years, I can’t have this 11 year old in this race. He ran an encouraging race in the November race, when taking to the fences well enough to come third, but will need to improve again on that to play as much of a hand as people are making out. Uniketat brings some extremely intriguing form over from France, where he has won his last six from six but it is not certain that he will be coming over yet and I would certainly be eyeing up the NRNB markets if you were to have a play on him, who might be worth an each way tickle.

However, my selection is the other French trained horse, Ajas. The more and more I look at this race, the more I think the currently available 10/1 with William Hill is a good price. He looks to be an improving horse, who has won three of his five starts this year, finishing second in the other two. However, it was his performance in the Grand Prix de Pau in January that particularly stood out for me. He was flawless over his obstacles that day and had plenty in the tank to hit the line strong over 3m2f on heavy ground. That would eliminate my fears over stamina at this extreme trip and his jumping has been to date, extremely good. You are taking a chance that he hasn’t run over these Cheltenham banks before, but plenty of French horses have very good records in these races and I’m hoping this lad will be no different. The trainer, David Cottin, obviously holds this horse in high regard as he gave him a speculative Grand National entry, and that is a vote of confidence I needed to see. I’m hoping he can perhaps upset the apple cart of his stable mate, and provide the goods.

Selection: Ajas (10/1) EW

Champion Bumper (2m)

Always a fascinating race in regards to the future of some of the most promising National Hunt horses in the game. It often throws up some smart horses, but sometimes the best horse may not win the Champion Bumper. However, Envoi Allen and Ferny Hollow are the last two on the roll of honour, and they are two very smart horses to have representing the Bumper form. Like most years, there are some very smart horses entering this year’s race, with any amount of improvement bound to come from most of these. The favourite is Kilcruit, who put up a monstrous performance at the DRF when accounting for a quality field on the bridle with Patrick Mullins motionless. He is now best priced 13/8 for the Champion Bumper, is this a good price?

The Masterson Family will be looking for some change of luck in this race. In the last couple of years, they have had both Appreciate It and Carefully Selected both overhauled very late on the run to the post. Kilcruit could provide the chance to be third time lucky. If you believe that performance from Leopardstown, which was a mouth watering effort, he should be winning this race - and comfortably at that. However, the Bumper is often not that simple and he is plenty short to be getting involved with if you’ve missed the early prices. I know there are some appetising antepost slips on Kilcruit going about, and I think he has a great chance, but I had my fingers burnt on Appreciate It in the bumper, who I couldn’t see getting beat. These things happen and I certainly wouldn’t be backing him a month out at 13/8.

Sir Gerhard was the horse nominated for this race throughout the season, but his long standing favoritism for the race has slipped due to the performance of Kilcruit. We’ve seen Sir Gerhard run on the track twice, when trouncing a good field of bumper performers at Down Royal before dispensing of Letsbeclearaboutit at Navan. On collateral form, he has work to do with Kilcruit on a line through Letsbeclearaboutit, but I wouldn’t be taking that form quite so literally. The two runs were in very different contests, one involving a pace collapse and one seeing two horses hitting the line very strong. We simply do not know how good this horse is. The one thing that is a slight concern is that he missed the DRF with a slight foot infection, sidelining his work for over a week. This is not ideal but with the majority of firms offering 3/1 NRNB, you’re getting the insurance for no run. I think he has drifted out to an appetising price against the fav and will be my selection in this race.

It’s hard to know what else is going to turn up in this race, with Elliot & Mullins likely to throw a few other darts at the race. Grangee will be taking this race in for the Syndicates team led by Jack Cantillon. She showed a willing attitude to win the Grade 2 mares bumper at the DRF, a route used by Relegate on her way to Champion Bumper glory. She denied more fancied stablemates that day and is not without an Each Way chance at 25s, but on the basis of her overall form, she has a bit to find. It’s a massive shame that we probably won’t see Eileendover in this for Pam Sly, with a trip to Aintree more likely on the cards. She slammed Grangee at Market Rasen in incredible fashion and would have been very potent in this with a mares allowance. Three Stripe Life will more than likely run in this for Gordon Elliot as a second string, and wouldn’t be a back number based off his performance at Navan, similar comments can be applied to Hollow Games, who is 2/2 from bumpers, but more than likely will be seen to best effect in years to come.

I still think that the top two in the betting are quite clearly the ones to beat, with Eileendover not planning to run here. At the prices, I am going to side with Sir Gerhard, who has drifted out to a backable price as a result of Kilcruit’s impressive performance.

Selection: Sir Gerhard (3/1) NRNB