Cheltenham Festival Day Three Preview - 2021

The Thursday entry from the Cheltenham Festival where I look at the big races including the Marsh Novices Chase, the Ryanair, the Stayers Hurdle and the Mares Novice.

Marsh Novices Chase (2m4f)

For what the Marsh may lack in terms of depth, it more than makes up for with the favourite in this race, the royal prince of racing, Envoi Allen. The Gordon Elliot trained horse is currently flawless in his record under rules, and has been extremely accomplished in all three starts over fences this year. He is a short price for this race, but is there anything to take him on?

Envoi Allen has oozed star quality from the first time we ever laid eyes on him. After beating Appreciate It easily in a PtP, he was unbeaten in bumpers. Considering he’s a big frame of a horse and jumping was always going to be his game, some of his bumper victories were remarkable. He fended off Blue Sari tenaciously in the Champion Bumper itself, with resolution and class getting him through. However, last year over hurdles was simply a delight to watch. Having won a maiden at Down Royal, he controlled matters from the front in the Royal Bond to beat Abacadbras and Darver Star. He then went onto Naas when accounting for Elixir D’Ainay in ready fashion. He was a warm order for the Ballymore last year and didn’t disappoint, despite being given plenty to do by Davy Russell. He has taken to chasing like a duck to water this year, winning impressively at Down Royal, Fairyhouse and Punchestown. He hasn’t faced the same level of competition as he had to last year, with many trainers and owners very keen to keep themselves away from the unbeaten seven year old. However, I doubt that he is going to be facing up against a whole pile in the Marsh either, and the betting would indicate as such. He is currently best priced 5 / 6 in the market, and you could easily make an argument that it is a fair price and likely to contract. I am not going to put up any horse a month from the festival at odds on, but with not much left in behind this horse in the betting, it’s a hard race to get an in on.

The next two in the betting are Energumene and Monkfish, who both won’t turn up in this race and instead will go for the options of the Arkle and the Brown Advisory respectively. That leaves Shan Blue next in the betting at 12s, and is one of the bigger English challengers. He has transformed himself over fences this year, having been a decent novice hurdler last year. Shan Blue has done it nicely this year, winning two back to back races at Wetherby, jumping supremely in the process. He then went on to better that form when winning the Kauto Star at Kempton. Again, jumping was the name of the game and one would have to think that The Big Breakaway might well have beaten him if not making jumping blemishes. Shan Blue was then turned over by Sporting John in the Scilly Isles Novice Chase, when he didn’t quite have the engine to repel the Phillip Hobbs trained runner. That form leaves him with more than enough to find with the favourite and I think he has bags to do, even with his polished jumping.

Sporting John is next in the betting and he comes off the back of accounting for Shan Blue at Sandown on only his second run over fences. That was a good effort, considering some poor jumps early in his round. His lack of experience would be a major negative going into this race, alongside the fact that he bombed out at Cheltenham last year when second favourite to Envoi Allen. He also has the option of going up in trip to the Brown Advisory, but I think he has plenty to find in both races, with his jumping a major concern. Chantry House is also in the ownership of JP McManus and he would have to have some solid each way credentials in this race. After winning on chasing debut at Ascot, he jumped sluggishly when getting well beaten at Cheltenham in November. He was more like it again last week at Wetherby and a reproduction of his Supreme third would put him in the frame here, although he wouldn’t be the most trustworthy.

As I alluded to in the Arkle Preview, Franco De Port has the option of taking this step up in trip and if he were too, he may well be good enough to get into the mix-up behind the favourite. However, on paper it does look like a forgone conclusion. Racing is often not quite as easy as it seems but Envoi Allen has scared away most of his competition and he should take all the beating in this race. I would fancy Chantry House and Franco De Port to be in the shakeup if they turned up here, but I’ll be keeping my powder dry on this race for now.

No Selection.

Ryanair Chase (2m5f)

Possibly one of the most competitive Grade 1s throughout the whole week, and it is one of the most intriguing races on the whole card. Willie Mullins seems to hold some good cards in this, with three in the first five of the betting - all of whom would have their chance. However, there are chances on both sides of the water and that’s what makes it so interesting. Allaho is the favourite at the moment, but is not rock solid by any means. There are shorter priced favourites throughout the week, but I think this one has a massive chance.

Allaho has been a small bit of a cliff horse for me, a horse who I have always held in the highest regard, despite him not giving me much in return over the years. It looks like they have finally got to the bottom of him, which seems to be making the most of his jumping in a strong run 2m4f/2m5f. Having made a poor comeback in the John Durkan in the fog, Allaho went on to finish an honourable fourth in the Savills Chase at Christmas. The Mullins camp were underwhelmed by that effort though, and the Kinloch Brae at Thurles was a hail mary, it was now or never. Luckily for those involved with the horse, it was now. He put in a big effort to beat Elimay, who has a wonderful chance in the Mares Chase, with the two a long, long way clear of fair standard bearers in Annamix and Balko Des Flos. His jumping was clean and precise and found a fair bit for pressure when it was required, winning snugly at the line. Paul Townend suggested that he might still come on for that run, which is a good sign for his backers and I think he may well be the choice of the Irish Champion jockey in the Ryanair. I was confident in this horse enough to back him at 12s back in September for this race, but I think the current 5s available is still more than fair.

Next in the market is last year’s winner, Min. I have always had a tonne of time for Min, who I genuinely think is one of the most underrated horses in training over the last number of years. Min winning last year’s Ryanair was up there with being one of my favourite moments of the week, as it had been so well deserved from this horse. He reappeared in the fog to win the John Durkan for the third year in a row, beating Melon and Allaho very impressively in the process. He was taken down the same route as last year, and a trip to the DRF to meet Chacun Pour Soi was on the agenda. It didn’t go to plan whatsoever, with his jumping (which has usually been so reliable) completely falling apart down the back before being abruptly pulled up by Patrick Mullins. I would always be the type of person to forgive one bad run, but that sort of preparation is not ideal in the slightest. As a result, I think he is just about opposable, though it is hard to utter that sentence out loud.

Imperial Aura is the horse that leads the British challenge for this race, but he too is coming into this off a less than ideal preparation. A freak incident saw his unseat at the second at Kempton in January, a thoroughly uncharacteristic mistake. Up until then, his season had gone superbly, winning well at Carlisle on reappearance, although that form is open to question. He then went on to win the Amlin Chase at Ascot, beating Itchy Feet and Real Steel. That looked good form at the time, but yet again time has not shone a light on that performance. He still has it to prove his worth at Grade 1 level and I feel this race might end up being a little too warm for him, even though I am a big fan of the horse. Saint Calvados also comes into this race off the back of an unseat at Sandown. Last year’s second ran a stormer in the King George, when just failing to stay in the dying embers of that race, weakening into fourth having entered the straight travelling the best. Harry Whittington has had a tough enough season and I would prefer to see a proper turn in stable form before becoming interested in this lad. He’s not without an each way chance based on last year’s form though.

Three Irish horses have seen each other in action plenty of times over the last few years, Melon, Fakir D'Oudairies and Samcro. You could make a case for all the three horses to have a chance in this race. Starting with Melon, he simply loves Cheltenham despite not getting his head in front yet in his career at Prestbury Park. He has been at the last four festivals and finished second all four times, a remarkably consistent sort. However, unlike some of his previous years runs, this year Melon has been running well away from Cheltenham. His run in the John Durkan was a fine starting point, before an upgrade on that when finishing third in the Savills Chase. He was arguably a little unlucky that day, when going for home perhaps a furlong too early. He will be more at home back down in trip and should hold a good chance if ridden aggressively over this trip. Fakir D’Oudairies has also a decent few runs at the festival under his best, with a fourth in the Supreme and a second in the Arkle to his name. This year, he’s been a bit hit and miss. Having disappointed slightly on reappearance, he ran well below par in the Savills Chase, when never travelling a yard. He then dropped back to 2 miles around Leopardstown, one of his most favourite C&D’s and ran a stormer behind Chacun Pour Soi. That must rate as good form and would have a chance in this based on that performance. However, I rate him as a nearly horse and feel he will always find one or two too good at proper G1 level. That leaves us with Samcro, the enigma. People love to crab Samcro, and perhaps he has just been a victim of his own hype from his younger days. However, the salient facts are these - he is 2/2 from Cheltenham with a G1 novice hurdle & G1 novice chase in the bag. He has been underwhelming again this year but I wouldn’t put it past Gordon Elliot to get this horse back performing on a bit of better ground. At a price of 20/1 NRNB - I am willing to take that chance at that sort of price, and will be playing him along with Allaho.

Selection: Allaho 12/1 EW (Ante-Post - September) & Samcro 20/1 EW NRNB

Stayers Hurdle (3m)

Another fascinating Grade 1 race with plenty of options for the punter and the fact it’s 10/3 the field would tell you all you need to know. The growing story throughout the English NH season has been the narrative between Thyme Hill v Paisley Park, with the score 1-1 after two races against each other. These two hold the key to this race, and even though there are some each way alternatives - I would be very surprised if it wasn’t one of the two English challengers winning this race.

We will start with Paisley Park, who was such a good winner of this race in 2019, before completely failing to justify heavy favoritism in last year’s renewal. A heart fibrillation was the reasoning behind that poor performance, which has been a complete red herring in all of his known form over the last two and a half years. He returned with a more than satisfactory run at Newbury when chasing home Thyme Hill. He improved from that form to reverse the placings with Thyme Hill at Ascot, when getting Aidan Coleman out of trouble having found himself quite far back. He has the assured stamina and has already proved he is up to winning a race such as this. However, last year is still somewhat in my memory and I’m not sure that this horse missing his intended target of the Cleeve Hurdle will be a massive advantage for this horse. I have always thought this horse thrives on racing, and the year he won the Stayers Hurdle, he was a hardened horse going into the race. This year, he will have to come straight from Ascot and I’m not sure that plays into his strengths. He sometimes does lack slightly for tactical pace at crucial moments of the race, and therefore I think he can be opposable, but only just.

Thyme Hill is the young pretender to the crown, and has developed into a seriously good staying hurdler this year after a solid novice hurdle season last year. He was fourth in the Albert Bartlett, which was probably the best running of the race in many years, and was arguably unlucky to not finish closer than the two lengths he was beaten. Richard Johnson might have wanted that ride back, but he certainly would have wanted the Long Walk back, when hitting the front a little too soon and presenting a target for Paisley Park to aim at. However, I have a feeling that performance can be upgraded considering he was a shade keen and his early jumping wasn’t as fluent as it can be. I think a stronger run race will suit this horse and he may have the tactical speed to be in the right place, right time. Johnson has had to take his medicine twice on Thyme Hill, and he will be desperate for that not to happen again. I liked him from the start of the year, and was more than happy to back him at 16s for this race, and I am more than happy with this bet. He is currently 4s for the race, which I still think is fair. I think the race is made for him and I am hoping he can land the sucker punch to Paisley Park.

The complexion of this race has changed a bit in recent days as Ronald Pump & Fury Road look set not to run, when both would have arrived with an each way chance. Ronald Pump has picked up a small injury, which feels unjust for a horse as likable and as consistent as he is. The Matthew Smith trained gelding pushed Honeysuckle all the way in the Hattons Grace, which rates as very high class form, so it is a shame to see him not take part. This leaves two of last year’s festival winners as the main each way options, Stayers Hurdle winner, Lisnagar Oscar and Pertemps winner, Sire Du Berlais. You could make a big argument that last year’s winner is a shade big at 20s, especially after a very encouraging effort in the Rendlesham at Haydock. However, it is hard to not get away from last year being a bit of a bolt from the blue and it will take a major effort to defend his crown. This being said, he likes Cheltenham and would have been primed with this one race in mind by Rebecca Curtis, and wouldn’t be without his chance. Sire du Berlais has won the last two renewals of the Pertemps, and therefore you are clinging on to his course form as his main chance in this. His runs away from Cheltenham, which included a lethargic third in the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown would leave him with plenty to find. Mark Walsh gets on well with this horse, which he will need to, given he can be a tricky ride at times. Similar to Paisley Park, I would be slightly concerned that Sire Du Berlais won’t be able to travel into the race quite as easily as he needs to play a leading hand. As much as he has his each way chance, he wouldn’t be for me.

The last two that deserve mentions are both Roksana and Flooring Porter, both of whom I think will be up against it. Roksana is not sure to turn up here, but she would be receiving a handy seven pounds from her male counterparts. The vibes say that she might bypass Cheltenham for a tilt at Aintree, which I couldn’t begrudge connections from doing. She is a very smart mare that travels very strongly on the bridle, but the Cheltenham hill doesn’t always see her to best effect and a flat track such as Aintree might be the key to her. Flooring Porter is a horse I just can’t get behind in this, I think he is short of the mark. He won impressively at Christmas when making all the running at Leopardstown. However, he was given a free five lengths at the start from his rivals and benefited from a very astute ride from Johnny Moore. One would have to imagine that he won’t be able to dictate matters quite as easily as he did there, and the rest of his form would leave him with a lot to find with the principles in this.

If you were to pin me down, I do honestly believe it’s between the top two in the market. My allegiance has always been with Thyme Hill this year, and it won’t be stopping now. I think he has a cracking chance and I hope Richard Johnson can roll back the years on this lad, and get the job done. The absence of Ronald Pump means I will have to reassess this race from an each way perspective, as I would have been happy to play him too. By final selections, I will have a clearer idea.

Selection: Thyme Hill 16/1 EW (Ante-Post September)

Mares Novice Hurdle (2m1f)

The Mares Novice is a race that has been monopolised by Willie Mullins since its inception a couple of years ago. In fact, it was Concertista who broke her maiden tag in this race last year, when hacking up by fifteen lengths from stablemate, Dolcita. He looks to have another few chances in this race this year, but perhaps his challenge doesn’t look as pronounced as it has done in years gone by. The race is currently 7/1 the field, showing how wide open it is.

The market leader is Hook Up, a mare for the Mullins/Rich Ricci combination, who boasts some solid form in this race. She ran at Cheltenham last year, when disappointing in the Triumph at a big price. As a result, she kept to being a novice for this year, and has capitalised on this fact. Having beaten Gars De Sceaux in her maiden hurdle, she possibly disappointed a little when getting beaten fair and square by Royal Kahala at Fairyhouse, she didn’t jump too well that day, and that is probably her main achilles heel. She was given a tough task in the all sex G1 novice at the DRF, but she ran an admirable race to run on for fourth. That rates as the best form in this, but she looks a complicated ride and I wouldn’t be in any mad rush to back her.

Royal Kahala shares favouritism at 7/1 for Peter Fahey, and this is a mare I rate very highly. Having ran only once last year when second to Castra Vetera, she has improved massively this year at her beloved Fairyhouse. She won a bumper, maiden hurdle and accounted for Hook Up in extremely comprehensive fashion in three starts on the trot. However, she too blotted her copybook when failing to travel with her usual zest when second in the Solerina last time out. Roseys Hollow won that day, but there will be a nine pound swing in the weights at Cheltenham and I would back the Fahey mare to turn the tables on that rival. Roseys Hollow is a nice mare herself, but that graded penalty asks plenty of her and I think she is well up against it. Gaulouise was behind that day in third, and she drifted from favoritism for this race out to 9s. Her form looks like she would need to improve to play a hand in the finish here.

It is a very open race though and I have no issue in playing two in this race, both in the NRNB market. As mentioned, I am more than happy to row in on the Peter Fahey mare, Royal Kahala, who despite the defeat last time out - still retains a lot of potential. The other is a tad more speculative, but is following the Willie Mullins trend in this race. He has won it before with second, third and fourth strings, so I’m not put off that this mare may be down the pecking order. That being said, I believe GLENS OF ANTRIM is a fascinating contender in this race and the 33s currently on offer is just simply too big to pass up. She has only had the three starts and has improved from run to run, but there is still a lot more improvement to come from this mare when she can brush up her jumping. A drop back to this extended 2 mile trip may also unlock a bit of improvement, as she has been slightly soft in the finish on her last two outings over 2m4f. She brings robust form to the table for a 33s shot, as she chased home Stattler gallantly at Christmas. She was only beaten three lengths by him, who is the current favorite for the Albert Bartlett. She then went to Naas and was foiled at odds-on by Mr Incredible. I think Mr Incredible is a nice horse for Henry De Bromhead, and his form tied in with Gaillard Du Mesnil also looks appetizing. On the basis of this, I don’t believe that she should be the price of 33s, which seems large. Willie Mullins also commented in his recent stable tour that this would be her target for the festival. I’m prepared to take that on face value and back her.

Selection: Royal Kahala 7/1 NRNB & Glens of Antrim 33/1 EW NRNB