Cheltenham Festival Day One Preview - 2021

It has come to the time of the year that National Hunt fans have been crying out for all year round. At the end of the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown, the countdown to Cheltenham becomes more and more pronounced.

In the last three years, I have produced Youtube videos previewing the top Festival races day by day - looking through the prism of the Ante-Post markets. This year, to add to the videos, there will be written articles on top of them. This gives the opportunity for any person to either watch or read my thoughts, or perhaps even both. Each preview will focus on the major races of the Cheltenham Festival for each day, before we move onto the trickier handicaps closer to the time.

Supreme Novices Hurdle (2m)

The Festival opener is quite possibly the most anticipated race in the entirety of the National Hunt Calendar. Unfortunately, this year, there will be no roar from the stands. However, the nerves and the tension that comes about 15/20 minutes before the Supreme, will be witnessed in the majority of living rooms across England & Ireland.

Unlike previous years though, this Supreme Novices doesn’t look like a vintage renewal on paper. The market is topped by Appreciate It, who looks a rock solid favourite for this race. Having been a top class bumper performer last year, Appreciate It ran a very respectable race before being collared close home by stablemate, Ferny Hollow, in last year’s Champion Bumper. That performance can also be upgraded, given he was the only one that was up with the pace throughout the race that still finished in the first six. His hurdling career has looked rock solid also. Having won a Cork maiden hurdle, beating the talented Master McShee in the process, he soared to new heights when thrashing a good looking field in the Grade 1 novice hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas. Without being quite as visually impressive at the Dublin Racing Festival (DRF), he still confirmed placings with Ballyadam - winning quite decisively at the line. I see the argument that people want to take him on, as Willie Mullins has probably trained more speedy two milers in his time, but this horse looks very robust at the top of the market. With a pure lack of proper alternate challengers - I feel his chances are reflected very accurately by his price of 7/4,15/8. One could easily make an argument that this is a very backable price in the festival opener.

As previously mentioned, the list of challengers to the favourite are slightly thin on the ground. The absence of Ferny Hollow and Dusart has had a massive effect on the division. The English challenge seems to be led by Metier, who won the Tolworth at Sandown very impressively to bring his hurdling record to three from three. He did it nicely there and is set to run in the Betfair Hurdle off top weight. If he was to go and win that impressively, he would certainly half in price from his current 7/1. However, I struggle to see that happening and I thought the Sandown race was a soft Grade One - I’m yet to be convinced.

Ballyadam is next in at 9s and has an EachWay chance in this. Having won his bumper last year, it brought about some serious lofty quotes from Jamie Codd. As a result, Ballyadam has had a hype tag which he has struggled to shift throughout the year, and despite some serious performances - he hasn’t quite lived up to it. He started his year impressively, tossing the well regarded duo of Colonel Mustard and He’s a Hardy Bloke to the sidelines at Down Royal. He then went on to add the Royal Bond Novice to his CV, despite some seriously sketchy jumping. His effort over Christmas can be written off given a bug in Elliot’s yard led some stable stars to underperforming. He was much better at the DRF, when chasing home Appreciate It. This was much more like it. This being said, his jumping still leaves a lot to be desired and I reckon he’s a bit soft in the finish. I can’t have how he turns the tables with the fav.

I don’t believe that any of the Triumph Hurdle contenders will contest this race, which leaves the race bare in terms of other each way alternatives. Blue Lord and My Drogo (20s) are both the best value at the bigger prices in my book. Blue Lord won a competitive maiden hurdle at Punchestown snug on the line on his Irish debut for Willie Mullins. Since then, he threw his race away from being too free over 2m4f at Naas behind Bob Olinger and then went onto finish a honest third behind Appreciate It and Ballyadam at the DRF - when given too much to do. I think he represents more value than Ballyadam at the prices. My Drogo has done nothing but improve throughout the year. His win at Newbury earlier this year, it looked mighty impressive to down the well touted Flintuer Sacre, however he has since disappointed again. However, My Drogo improved again to win the Grade 2 Novice at Ascot before Christmas in decisive fashion. That form is up for debate, with the second Llandinabo Lad running poorly since and the third, Soaring Glory, potentially out for an appetising handicap mark. He was visually impressive though and deserves his chance.

This is a race that you could go through an awful lot of horses and try to make a case. I think it’s a race you can overcomplicate very easily though. Appreciate It brings the best form to the table and acts on the track - I still think he is a good price and think he will do the business.

Selection: Appreciate It (7/4)

Arkle Novices Chase (2m)

Perhaps unlike the festival opener, this looks like a mouth watering contest between two well above average Novice Chasers. It’s Nicky Henderson v Willie Mullins, England v Ireland, Shishkin vs Energumene. Now it is obviously remiss to eliminate all other challengers, and in truth, there are some very good horses behind in the betting. Firstly, I will assess the chances of the two market principles.

Shishkin brings the festival form and the reputation. Seen by many as the next on the Nicky Henderson conveyor belt of stunning two mile chasers. His two predecessors, Altior and Sprinter Sacre, have set the bar high in the Henderson stable. It hasn’t seemed to have affected this horse though, who has answered every single question that has been thrown his way. He posted a superb performance in last year’s Supreme Novice, defying a lot of in-running trouble to repel Abacadbras, pulling well clear of Chantry House, Asterion Forlonge and Allart in the process. That was a remarkable effort in the circumstances, and he has looked like he has grown up this year for seeing a fence. I see some are trying to crab his jumping a little, but apart from being careful at one or two at Doncaster, he has been nearly flawless and has beaten all in his wake over in England. For him to not win, those in front will have to try and exploit any chinks in his jumping early in the race, as he has a slight Altior-esque style of running behind the bridle early in his race. Perhaps most importantly in a race like this, he seems tactically versatile, and if he’s within striking distance at four out, it’s going to take an exceptional horse to beat him.

Energumene is the horse that looks the key challenger, and having come out of the abyss of an innocuous start to his rules career - he has transformed into a splendid, strong staying two miler. His three performances this year have all been good on the eye and good on the clock. He battered Port Stanley in a Gowran Beginners, before handily accounting for Captain Guinness. He went on to confirm his superiority on the division with a resounding romp at the DRF, accounting for G1 Novice Chase winner, Franco De Port, in the process. This horse’s jumping is his biggest asset, with his front running style putting horses in behind under the cosh from early doors. His injection of pace towards two out in the DRF race, accounted for Captain Guinness, with the De Bromhead runner still having a bit of running to give. The 11/4 currently available is probably a little too big as a result, I would have him more as a 9/4 shot myself. That being said, he has received a freebie out in front on all three of these runs and you wouldn’t want to be seeing any sort of decent ground on the opening day. He will have Allmankind to deal with it out in front, and perhaps he might even be a better horse with a lead, but he is yet to prove this. I still think he has a bit to find to match it with a top notch Shishkin, mind.

Allmankind has taken to fences very well this season after a poor return over hurdles in October at Cheltenham. He is running in the Kingmaker at Warwick around the time of writing this piece, of which he should win, and will earmark him down as a challenger. However, it is hard to get away from his record around Cheltenham and I would be very surprised to see his pace angle hold up. Perhaps one to note in this is Captain Guinness, a horse that I’m quite content to follow over a cliff. Things just have not clicked him for yet in his career, with bouts of bad luck littered throughout his runs under rules. He was second behind Energumene at Naas and was running a big race and likely to fill the frame again behind that rival when capsizing at the second last at the DRF. I do believe he has genuine possibilities of filling the frame in this race and as a result, will be advising him each way.

I have a feeling they may step Franco de Port up in trip to the Marsh, however he too would have place possibilities if lining up in this. I would hope that my selection would be able to uphold form with the likes of Blackbow, Unexpected and Darver Star - while the English challengers outside the favourite look thin on the ground. Fascinating race.

Selection: Captain Guinness (25/1) EW

Champion Hurdle (2m)

Yet again it looks like the mares will be dominant in the Champion Hurdle with Honeysuckle and Epatante vying for favouritism at the top of the market. It doesn’t look like a vintage renewal of the race, as it didn’t this time twelve months ago. It’s been disappointing to see some of last season’s novices not quite fulfill what some of us may have hoped.

I, for one, thought Saint Roi may step up into being Willie Mullins’ Champion Hurdle horse after streaking away with the County Hurdle last year. With this in mind, I put him up at 20s for this race back in September time - optimistic that he may well be the one. However, after a very promising start to his year, he has been a big disappointment in his last two runs at Leopardstown. He has now drifted back out to 25s (as short as 6s at one stage) for this race and looks to have no realistic hope based on his form this year. However, I will always let my antepost slips run so therefore I will still be hoping that the return to Cheltenham in March may spark some massive improvement, it would need to!

Epatante was the 2020 winner of this race and she was imperious last year, and won with a lot in hand at the line. She stamped herself down as a genuinely serious mare with that performance and I know that it did come as a bit of a shock to many that she won so easily. It was business as usual on her reappearance in the Fighting Fifth, when partnered with new regular rider, Aidan Coleman - she won with bags in hand from Sceau Royal. However, the race completely fell apart on the back of the departures of Not So Sleepy and Silver Streak, leaving this form widely open to interpretation. She was not able to back this effort up when putting in a surprisingly flat run at Kempton behind Silver Streak at Christmas time. This is the second time that the mare has put in a substandard performance in her career and despite having come back from this in the past, it takes a braver man than myself to back her at 5/2 on the back of it.

Then we have Honeysuckle, a mare that I have just plain and simply got wrong. I have been far too keen to take her on, citing reasons such as jumping at 2 mile pace, tough opposition and lack of form substance. Everytime, she has come to the well and her performance in the Irish Champion Hurdle was a career best in my book. She travelled and jumped more like a proper 2 miler that day and that has set her up for a crack at this. Having managed to repel the gallant Benie Des Dieux in a titanic finish to the Mares Hurdle, she should be cherry ripe to give this a fair bash. I have been convinced to finally take the plunge and back this mare finally, and swallow my own pride in the process. I know her win in the ICH wasn’t the strongest form you’ll find - but it was enough to sway me, putting away Abacadbras, Sharjah and Saint Roi in a fairly common canter. I think she will take the world of beating in this and the 5/2 is more than fair.

There are plenty of EachWay options that will be tossed and turned over the next few weeks. Aspire Tower will be top of some of these lists, and probably rightly so. He was a good juvenile last year, putting up a serious performance at Leopardstown over Christmas. However, despite finishing second in the Triumph Hurdle, it was a slightly worrying performance, with his jumping and his inability to settle, major demerits. This year though has seen a new Aspire Tower, a more professional one. He put Abacadbras and Jason the Militant in their places up in Down Royal before a highly credible second in the Matheson Hurdle behind Sharjah. That performance can be upgraded considering he was at the front of a strong pace and managed to stick at it gallantly with the race falling into perennial closer, Sharjah’s hands. Five Year Old’s have a tough time of it in this race though, and I don’t think he’s a world beater and is vulnerable in my eyes.

Silver Streak and Sharjah bring similar enough form to the table, good horses that you’d love to own. However, the majority of us would be very disappointed to see either win a Champion Hurdle. They won the big 2 mile hurdles over Christmas, impressively in both instances, but really should be held on most known form. Abacadbras ran a stormer in the Supreme on this day last year, far surpassing my expectations. However, ever since running out in a bumper at the DRF - I have slightly struggled to warm to him and his idiosyncrasies. On a going day, he would have a cracking Each Way chance, but everything would have to fall into place and there are too many variables to make him a betting proposition.

Having already backed Saint Roi and now adding Honeysuckle to this race, I’m prepared to leave it at that for the time being, and hope the mare doesn’t go missing now that I have backed her!

Selection: AntePost - Saint Roi (20/1) EW & Honeysuckle (5/2)

Mares Hurdle (2m5f)

There are still some nights that I wake up in a cold sweat having had another nightmare about Benie Des Dieux getting turned over in this race last year. However, this is one of the harder Grade 1s over the week to know for definite who is heading where. It looks more than likely that Honeysuckle will now be going down the 2 mile route - leaving it seemingly open for Concertista to strike, but is it quite as easy as it looks?

Concertista is the fav in here across the board and rightly so based on her Cheltenham form and also her performances this year. She looks a transformed mare this season, putting two trappy contests to bed in convincing fashion, winning both with a lot in hand. Having broken her maiden tag when streeting away with the Mares Novice last year, she has looked like a prime candidate for this race ever since. I couldn’t put anyone off backing her for this race and certainly if you have bigger prices, I think that she must be bang there. However, there is a feeling of missing the price with this one and I’m not going to weigh in right now a month ago at a poor price. I may be swung to have a bet on her on the day, but I will more than likely leave it till then.

Benie Des Dieux is the fly in the ointment of both this race and the Mares Chase - but will she make the festival at all. Some very surprising and worrying drifts on her prices on the Betfair Exchange over the last few days tells you all you need to know. She is a top class mare who I believe would beat Concertista at her best, but with the chances of her not making the race and potentially not being in top form, you would have to leave her until seeing the official declarations on the Sunday prior to Cheltenham starting. Roksana is also in this race at a fairly short price varying between 4s & 7s. Also with her, she has seen to be a revelation over 3 miles this season, benefitting from some mustard rides from Harry Skelton in the process. I would imagine that if she did turn up to the festival, it would be getting a weight allowance in the Stayers Hurdle rather than running in this. My gut tells me they might wait till Aintree with her this year, and despite winning a Mares Hurdle in the past, I don’t think Cheltenham is particularly her track.

I have stumbled on one here who I think is a good price given the race is bound to cut up before the off. With massive questions marks over many of the market principles in this, it should lead the way for BLACK TEARS to be competitive from an Each Way point of view at a massive price of 33/1. She has a fair bit to find with the favourite, having been beaten comprehensively at Christmas when they last met, but this Gordon Elliot trained mare seems to come alive at Cheltenham. She’s run at the festival twice, where putting all known form to a side when finishing a close up fourth in the Mares Novice, before a huge run in second in the Coral Cup last year, just failing to deny the well handicapped, Dame De Compagnie. Her rating would suggest that another tilt at the Coral Cup is surely out of the picture and I believe this is where she is heading. I think there may be a bit of juice in this price as it might just cut up into a small field, and even though she probably won’t beat Concertista, I would be taking 33s that she’s filling out the frame behind her.

Selection: Black Tears (33/1) EW

National Hunt Chase (3m6f)

Another tough race to get stuck into due to the lack of knowledge of where everyone is turning up this year at the festival. A couple near the top of the market in this have dual engagements at the Festival, and in the case of Latest Exhibition, he may skip the entirety of Cheltenham. However, Galvin, who has long since been the favourite for this race, is due to run - but he seems a tad skimpy for my liking.

Galvin has been a horse that has been earmarked for this race ever since finishing an admirable second in the Novices Handicap at the festival last year. He has campaigned similarly, with a string of efforts in the summer and early autumn before being put away for this race. However, he only ran once over 3m, when winning an average enough Novice Chase at Cheltenham in October. For me, he doesn’t strike me as a horse that needs an extreme test of stamina, but I know connections know much more than me on that front. There is no getting away from the fact that he’s been a ‘wise-guys’ horse for this race for a long time, and the price doesn’t scream value at me.

Royalle Pagaille is also near the top of the market, and would be favourite for this race if declared to run in it. However, I would assume that due to the lack of depth in the Gold Cup, they may just chance their arm at the blue riband event this year rather than hatching a plan for the NH Chase. As previously alluded to, I would be very surprised if Latest Exhibition to pitch in here, with the Nolan’s more than likely spying a tilt at the RSA or to skip the Festival altogether - same comments would apply with Eklat De Rire.

In the last couple of years, this has been won by a grinder, who stays forever. Sometimes the classier horses can get beat in this. My selection for the race is hopefully a combination of both a grinder and classiness. PENCILFULLOFLEAD looks screaming out for an extreme test of his stamina, with his form this year working out very well indeed. Now he may not go for this race, and therefore I’m a lot more tempted to take the general 12s available NRNB, rather than take the risk at 16s without that insurance. Having won his beginners at Galway, he exceeded that form completely when accounting for Latest Exhibition in the Florida Pearl. He then went on to finish a close second in the Grade 1 at Limerick to Colreevy, and then third - and perhaps a shade disappointing behind Eklat De Rire last time at Naas. That performance just looked like a beautiful prep for this type of race, and I would give him a massive chance if he was to run - with his strong staying tendencies and back class sure to put him bang there.

Selection: Pencilfulloflead (12/1) EW - NRNB