Cheltenham Festival Day Four Preview - 2021
Gold Cup day at Cheltenham is one of the biggest days of National Hunt Racing throughout the year. It’s hard to imagine that this day last year was the last time a massive crowd was allowed at the races, and I’m glad that I was able to lap it up as much as I did. This year’s Friday card looks just as tricky as always.
Triumph Hurdle (2m1f)
The premier juvenile hurdle race of the year looks a competitive race on paper this year and the strength in depth looks stronger than in previous year’s renewals. The race had a dramatic end last year with the untimely departure of Goshen at the last flight, and hopefully nothing like that will happen this year. Gordon Elliot is dual handed at the top of the market here, and looks to hold a lot of the aces in this pack.
The favourite in this race is Zanahiyr, who is still priced at a respectable 5/2. Zanahiyr was a purchase for Noel & Valerie Moran, having been a handy middle distance horse for Mick Halford as a three year old. He has taken to hurdling very well indeed, where he is now 3/3 over obstacles. He won a competitive maiden hurdle for the time of year at Ballinrobe in October. He beat Dark Voyager that day, who has been disappointing since for Willie Mullins. However, he travelled through the race and jumped okay for a first start over hurdles, and was sure to improve. He went into Graded company at Fairyhouse and put in a performance to be reckoned with. He quickened up impressively to demolish Saint Sam by 14L, with another gap back to Druids Altar. That was off a strong gallop and the obvious plan at Leopardstown was to go slow to try and get him beat, it failed to work. Again, he picked up impressively off a slow pace, which wouldn’t have suited at all - to win cosily at the line by 3 lengths. That effort can be upgraded and he holds very solid claims as favourite for this race. I think his form is the best in this race and I would be shocked to not see him bang there. In similar circumstances to the Supreme, I am hoping the favourite can get punters off to a good start on Gold Cup Day, and I will be taking Zanahiyr to win the Triumph at 5/2.
Next in the betting is a stablemate of Zanahiyr, Quilixios. This Cheveley Park owned horse is a respectable second favorite in the market, at 6/1. He too is 3/3 over hurdles in Ireland, having picked up a hurdle race also when trained in France by Francois Nicole. He was very impressive at Punchestown and Down Royal early in the season, boosting this horse into early favoritism for this race. The form of those two races is very much open to interpretation and we had to wait until the DRF to see him again. He was meant to take in the G1 juvenile hurdle at Chepstow but transport restrictions put cold water on that plan, and he had a longer than ideal break as a result. He was impressive at the DRF, beating Saint Sam by five lengths, but I was underwhelmed by his finishing effort and given the race fell apart a bit, I haven’t quite taken to him yet. Saint Sam was coming back at him at the line and the major market rival, Youmdor, didn’t travel a yard in the race. This Quilixios is a very good horse, however he has it to find with his stable mate and I don’t see him being able to get by him. Elliot also has Duffle Coat, who brings solid form from earlier in the year, when he beat Adagio at Cheltenham. However, he is still 16s and there hasn’t been talk of him for a little while, and I would be a bit suspect if he will actually make it to the festival. This is a shame if it was to be the case, as he would have an each way chance based on his form.
The next few in the betting would all have their chances. However, French Assel is not a horse I will be siding with at all. He has been extremely hyped after making a breathtaking debut for Ellemarie Holden at Leopardstown over Christmas. He has since been bought privately by the Donnelly’s and sent to Willie Mullins. The horse could be anything, but the form of that Leopardstown run alone leaves a lot to be desired and I’m really not sure why he’s quite as short as he is. Holden’s horses are usually very forward first time out and therefore there may not be quite as much improvement to come from this horse as people make out. Adagio is the best of the English, however maybe slightly on default, considering Monmiral won’t be taking in Cheltenham. Adagio has done nothing but improve throughout the year and was very impressive and professional when defeating Nassalam at Chepstow in January, that form has taken a slight knock since. He is a likeable horse and will more than likely run his race, but will he be short of the mark? Potentially so.
One of my Ante-Post bets for this year was Nassalam for this race at 25s, which he is currently still available at and I’m hoping that he at least runs in the race for a run for money. However, his form would leave him with a lot to find and he perhaps hasn’t quite improved as much as I thought he might by now. He has finished second to Adagio and Monmiral the last two times, and therefore is not even at the top of the English challenge for this race. He is up against it but I’m going to let the bet run, and hopefully he runs and perhaps shows some improvement, he would need to!
Selection: Zanahiyr 5/2 NRNB & Nassalam 25/1 EW (Ante-Post)
Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle (3m)
The Albert Bartlett is always one of the trickiest races to decipher every year, and this renewal doesn’t look any different to the normal. It is 7/1 the field at the moment, and there does seem like there are plenty of chances in this race. Last year’s Albert Bartlett was by far the best we have seen in years, with four quality horses vying for a win at the back of the last. This year doesn’t look quite as strong, and therefore it is hard to race to have a massive handle on.
I put up Stattler as an Ante-Post selection for this race at 20/1 after he won his maiden hurdle at Leopardstown. At the time, he was one of the very few horses that was definitely going to turn up for this race. He has been backed into 7/1 favourite for this race after a gallant third from the front in the Nathaniel Lacy at the DRF. That form can be upgraded in my eyes, as he was the only horse who genuinely tried to beat Gaillard du Mesnil. As much as he won’t have to re-oppose Gentlemansgame in this (with connections opting against a trip to Cheltenham with such a young horse) , I would have been backing him to reverse the form anyway. Stattler has a lot of very likeable traits, he jumps well, travels well and finishes his races gamely. I think if he is ridden with a little bit more restraint than Leopardstown, he will be bang there in the finish. He wasn’t the most impressive bumper horse for Willie Mullins last year, but he has always shaped like a horse who would benefit from a big test of his stamina and this does seem like the target for the entirety of the year. This is one of my bets this year that I’m most happy with, and I’m really hoping that he has a massive chance in what looks like an Albert Bartlett that lacks a bit of class.
Near the top of the market is Fakiera, the perennial wise-guys horse for this race. I just don’t see the angle behind this horse myself, as he just seems to be naturally very slow. He holds a record of two wins from seven starts over hurdles, which is a grand, if unspectacular record. He does boast a lot of experience in this race and that is often a good trait to have. However, he is a second season novice and I am always willing to take these sorts of horses on at the top of the betting, as there are quite clear limitations with this horse. He was never sighted in the Nathaniel Lacy for the majority of the race and was an also-ran until a furlong to go. He plugged on past beaten horses in the finish of that race and was closest to the line. I know the 3 mile trip of the Bartlett may see him to good effect, but it’s hard to not imagine him getting outpaced and plugging on again. Fakiera doesn’t just lack tactical speed, he has none. As a result, I will take him on.
Barbados Bucks, Torygraph and Farouk D’Alene are the next three in the betting. I will start with the latter. Farouk D’Alene is a lovely horse but there has not been much talk about him recently and there are a few rumours doing the rounds that he may well be out of Cheltenham. His form at Limerick can be upgraded, given the yard’s poor form at the time. He would have an each way chance if he was to turn up, but it doesn’t look likely at this stage. Torygraph is a lovely young horse for Gigginstown/Gordon Elliot and would have his chance in this. He was a backward sort in bumpers and it’s no surprise to see this horse transform to a switch to hurdling and a step up in distance. He has won his last two over 2m7f and the form of both runs doesn’t look too bad at all. There are whispers that Jack Kennedy may ride this horse as well, and would have a good each way chance as a result. Barbados Bucks is a Nicholls inmate who leads the English challenge in this race, but it is not a strong challenge at that. He is another who has transformed for a step up in trip, but I doubt there are many horses that win Cheltenham races having been turned over at Stratford and winning two races around Southwell. His win at Kempton was more impressive but I think there is enough evidence to take him on.
I won’t be getting involved with anything at a much bigger price just at the moment with this race but I do have my eyes peeled on Streets of Doyen & The Cob. If either of them are running on the day, I certainly will think of having a play at a bigger price. The Cob won the Doncaster novice hurdle over 3 miles by a mighty 9 lengths in impressive fashion and has been a gradual improver throughout this season. Streets of Doyen is a horse who has been expertly handled by John McConnell, who has placed this horse superbly. His last run was back in October, when winning at Cheltenham, beating Minella Encore and Polish. He previously had beaten subsequent Grade 1 winner, Flooring Porter, by five lengths. He is a type of horse who may sneak into this race under the radar at a bigger price, but will be waiting for the final declarations before entertaining the idea of backing him.
Selection: Stattler 20/1 EW (Ante-Post December)
Gold Cup (3m2f)
The big race of the week, the Gold Cup, is yet another intriguing renewal of the race. The market is led by Al Boum Photo, who is looking to emulate the likes of Best Mate and Arkle, and win three consecutive Gold Cups. That feat is not to be sniffed at, and will take a massive performance from the horse to back up his previous two wins. He is favourite to do so, currently at 3/1 - which one could easily argue is still a very fair price based on his opposition in this race.
Al Boum Photo is a horse very close to my heart, and it would be remiss of me not to mention that there is quite a lot of Al Boum bias in my thought processes of the Gold Cup markets over the last few years. That being said, he has done absolutely nothing wrong and has only been beaten once as an open Chaser. He has won back to back Gold Cups, in two very contrasting races. He came from the rear under a confident ride from Paul Townend in 2019 to take advantage of a strong pace to clear up the run-in to beat Anibale Fly and Bristol De Mai. Last year was a lot more tactical, and against this horse, who stays very well at this trip. Townend provided a race winning move at four out, when taking Al Boum Photo to the front at four out, and he clung on from the fast finishing Santini. I think he is better than that form at face value, and did remarkably well to win that race given the circumstances. He returned to his customary New Years Date at Tramore, and won by nineteen lengths. People wanted to crab that performance, and to be honest, people just like crabbing this horse in general. As good as Envoi Allen and Monkfish might be, come back to me when they’ve won back to back Gold Cups, it is HARDER than it looks. Al Boum Photo will be looking to replicate this winning formula again for Willie Mullins, who has stumbled on a gold mine of a prep for the Gold Cup. He may not be a people’s horse, but he is one of my favourites. I love him and I want him to win again.
Last year’s RSA Chase winner, Champ, is second in the betting after a great comeback run in the Game Spirit over 2 miles at Newbury last week. He clearly has some engine as last year’s novice chase would indicate, but whether his jumping can stand the test of time over 3m2f at Cheltenham is a different story. People have indicated that his prep has now been ideal having run well at Newbury. Now how on earth you can classify one run over 2 miles as a perfect prep for the Gold Cup is beyond me. He is an excellent horse who would have a big chance in this if he was to put his best foot forward. He is a small bit of an enigma though and therefore something silly isn’t out of the question with this horse. He rates as the strongest challenger to Al Boum Photo, and I think the current price of 7/1 is around right. However, I do think his run on the weekend is being massively overhyped.
Next in the betting is the Savills Chase winner, A Plus Tard. It is bad to have notions over certain horses, because I did say this about Ballyadam backers. A Plus Tard is just not a horse I have ever liked, and I think he is still well up against it this year. He’s in here at 7/1 and I just don’t see the angle behind it at all. He won the Savills Chase, when benefitting from a pace collapse in front to get up on the line from Kemboy. That form has been franked since and on that form alone, he rates a contender. However, some of his back form is questionable, especially his defeat by Castlegrace Paddy at Navan earlier this year. He was all the rage in the Ryanair last year, when everyone was convinced that he was too good for Min, and he didn’t do the business. Twelve months on, we are back in the same position with people falling over themselves to back him against Al Boum Photo. He is not for me, but I’m more than willing to be proven wrong.
Royalle Pagaille is more than likely to turn up here, and he has every right to after his route of the Peter Marsh at Haydock last time out. The second favourite for that race unseated down the back which severely took away from the race, and he was left to beat horses that he should have been beating. I wouldn’t begrudge connections at all running a huge race but he has each way claims at best in my opinion. Frodon won the King George last time out, which was a brilliant run from this very likeable horse, but the balance of his form leaves him behind the majority of these. Also the likely contested lead has sometimes found this horse out in races gone by, and with him unlikely to get a freebie, he should be out of his comfort zone. Santini was a horse I was trying to give every chance to this year, but he simply doesn’t put it really in when it matters. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him run a seasonal best in March, but he would have to improve over a stone from his efforts this year to even be anywhere near the finish. Minella Indo went into this year with such promise and after he won his first two graded races impressively, it looked like he would be playing a major hand in the Gold Cup. However, he uncharacteristically fell in the Savills at Christmas time when a third of the price of A Plus Tard, and didn’t jump too well when fourth in the Irish Gold Cup. There should be improvement from that effort but he hasn’t looked the same horse the last two times and is probably vulnerable as a result.
The last horse I’m going to throw into the mix in this race is Native River, who not only has his each way chance, but is imperative for the shaping of the racing. He is an older horse now and is vulnerable, especially on better ground. However, he brings an extremely robust level of form to the table and his win at Sandown only confirmed that he is still in rude health. It would be remiss of anyone to just rule him out due to age and I think he will beat more home than not. I will be waiting to the final selections to see whether I’m going to put this lad up each way, with ground certainly on the radar - but I can assure you that he’s close on the list.
Selection: Al Boum Photo 9/2 (Ante-Post December)
Foxhunters Chase (3m2f)
The Foxhunters is a great race for all those involved but the definition of it has been shaped massively by the absence of Amatuer jockeys at this year’s festival. It’s a race I actually enjoy quite a lot, but I’m going to keep the preview brief.
The favourite in this race is Billaway, trained by Willie Mullins, who was second in the race last year. He ran very well for a horse so inexperienced and that was the excuse given by connections for failing to collect. They have been eager to get runs into him this year, and he was the last twice at Down Royal and Naas. Despite a short price of 3/1, his jumping still leaves a lot to be desired and I don’t feel he’s learning as much as they had planned on the job. He was clumsy at a few fences at Naas last time out and I think he’s far too short to be backing with major confidence in a large field Cheltenham race.
Instead, I feel it is more prudent to be backing his conqueror from last year, It Came to Pass, who was an unfancied 66/1 winner of the Foxhunters for father/daughter combination of Eugene and Maxine O’Sullivan. She gave the horse a brilliant ride that day, when never far off the pace and looked the winner a long way out. He beat the right horses as well, with well fancied Billaway, Shantou Flyer and Staker Wallace all in behind. This gelding comes alive at Cheltenham and if faced with a bit of better ground on the Friday, he would be going back with a massive chance. He is due to run at Thurles around time of writing this piece, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get turned over in that race on heavy ground. It wouldn’t put me off backing him even more for this race and I think he has a massive chance.
Selection: It Came To Pass 14/1 EW NRNB
Mares Chase (2m4f)
A completely new race to the festival this year and therefore we have no idea what it might take to win a race of this nature and how it will be run. However, if the other mares races on the programme are anything to go by, Willie Mullins is a safe bet to be there or thereabouts in a race such as this. He has the two at the top of the betting in this race, and both bring rock solid credentials to the table, if they both run that is.
Elimay is the current favourite for this race and it is very hard to not like this grey, almost white mare. She has been a silently progressive horse since joining Willie Mullins three years ago from France and the addition of the Mares Chase to Cheltenham has been a fitting addition for a solid, chasing mare such as Elimay. She has been to Cheltenham once before in the Mares Hurdle a couple of years ago, she was a young horse back then and finished a well beaten seventh. This being said, her form has been taken to new places over fences and the fact she has only been beaten once over the larger obstacles pays testament to that. That one horse was Allaho, current favourite for the Ryanair Chase. She won the Opera Hat Mares Chase over 2 miles at Naas a few weeks ago, and she has shortened into 9/4 for this race on the back of that. I don’t think that’s an overreaction either and is justifiably that price. It has been commented that she is a very small mare, but she is a nimble jumper and loves her jumping, so I wouldn’t have any qualms with that whatsoever. I backed her for this race NRNB at 10/1 before her run at Thurles behind Allaho, hoping that she might run the way she did. This looks to be one of my strongest ante-post selections for the year and I’m very hopeful.
Colreevy can’t be overlooked either and would rate as a massive danger in this if she was to turn up. She has been flawless over fences this year, winning 3/3 and taking the switch to fencing completely in stride. However, she is still a novice and would have to carry a 5 pounds Grade 1 penalty in this race, which would make her task harder. Connections have been contemplating staying away from Cheltenham, but personally I think she will run, with Mullins looking to cover his options for this race. As much as she has looked superb this year, I would still have Elimay against her. She has looked more natural in years gone by going right handed rather than left handed. In fact, she is 0/3 going left handed, and 0/2 at Cheltenham - where she was beat in the Champion Bumper and Mares Novice last year. I think there is enough to take her on with that evidence.
I think there are plenty of non-runners in this race, and Annie Mc and Shattered Love probably represent the each way value in the race. I would be quite keen on Shattered Love - who won the JLT in 2018 and has contested the Gold Cup and Ryanair in her last two visits to Cheltenham. That leaves her with a big drop in class here and she has been shaping like a big run might be in her at the festival. She is currently 12s and that represents enough value for me to play her alongside Elimay, with the two runners likely to run well. Shattered Love would love a bit of juice in the ground and her run behind Elimay at Naas would leave her with a bit to find with the fav, but not much to find with the rest.
Selection: Elimay 10/1 EW NRNB (Ante-Post January) & Shattered Love 12/1 EW NRNB
