Cheltenham - The Showcase Meeting 2020 - Preview and Selections
Friday:
2.25 - 3m½f (3m80y) (Old) Matchbook Better Way To Bet Novices' Chase
Selection: Ask Dillon (5/1) - Best Price
This is quite a tricky six runner race for its kind and is therefore, quite a lively betting heat. The eye is immediately drawn to Galvin, trained by Gordon Elliot and ridden by Robbie Power. He is around 2/1 with the majority of the bookmakers - which is probably a fair reflection of his chances for tomorrow. Despite him holding rock solid credentials, there is a part of me that just wants to take him on in this. Galvin is in very good form but his wins in Ireland this summer have been facile against weak opposition and this is a much sterner test of his jumping and more importantly, his stamina.
With this in mind, there is enough for me to oppose the Irish raider at the odds, and I have gone the way of Ask Dillon for Fergal O’Brien. Fergal’s string has started the season in great nick and this horse should progress into a decent Novice Chaser. Having had a progessive novice hurdle season which included beating Boldmere (Now Rated 145 over Fences), he went on to progress again last year. He was placed in two very competitive handicap hurdles before finishing down the field in the Stayers Hurdle.
His Cheltenham record as a result doesn’t read too well - but I would counter that by suggesting that this is his first achievable race he has run at the track. With Fergal having a treble on this card last year, I will be hoping that he can get off to a good start with this horse.
3.35 - 2m (1m7f199y) (Old) Bentley Flying Spur Handicap Chase
Selection: On The Slopes (11/2)
These Cheltenham handicaps at the start of the season are invariably tricky and this race is no different. Rouge Vif is the obvious place to start, with the second season novice bringing high form to the table. However, his form at Cheltenham isn’t brilliant and despite coming third in the Arkle last year, he was still beaten by 19 lengths. His best form does seem to come at slightly flatter tracks and I think the mark of 156 does ask a lot of this horse. Both Scardura and Beat the Judge bring some solid summer form to the table but the form of these races can often leave a bit to be questioned and even though they have the race fitness edge - I’m willing to oppose.
Instead, I’m siding with On The Slopes, who brings a formline from last year that I have taken with me for a while. His third on Trials Day couldn’t have worked out any better, with the first and second (Simply the Betts and Imperial Aura) both going on to claim festival success. This lad on the other hand swerved Cheltenham to land a big Handicap Chase at Kempton the day after the festival. He won convincingly that day off a mark off 136 with future winners Return Ticket & Dr Sanderson in behind. His rise of seven pounds should not be insurmountable this year and hopefully can go very close tomorrow.
5.15 - 2m½f (2m87y) (Old) Back And Lay At Matchbook Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle
Selection: Clemencia (18/1) EW
Another Cheltenham handicap where you could make a case for quite a lot in the field. Last year’s winner, Benny’s Bridge tops the betting with the unexposed Wild Max and Nanabelle up near the top of the market. You could make a case for an awful lot of the horses in this so it might be better to side with an EachWay alternative.
I have done this by siding with Clemencia for Tim Vaughan, with Charlie Price taking off a valuable three pounds also. Having formerly been trained by Brendan Duke last year, Clemencia got off the mark at the second time of asking over hurdles, defeating Pasley by 15L down in Cork - he was very impressive that day and looked a smart prospect. However, that win meant he had to mix it with the best juveniles in Ireland the next twice and was well beaten by Aspire Tower and A Wave of the Sea in back to back Leopardstown starts.
He went over to join the Tim Vaughan team and made his stable debut as an unfancied outsider for the Boodles Handicap. Running off the same mark as today in 134, he ran a very honest race to finish a respectable fifth, only beaten the guts of three lengths. That was a very promising effort and one that would make you think some handicaps will be within his range this season. He has C&D form and has proven ability in a big field handicap, so this 4 year old should go better than his odds of 18/1 would suggest.
Saturday
2.05 - 2m½f (2m87y) (Old) Masterson Holdings Hurdle
Selection: Botox Has (7/2)
A really intriguing start to the Saturday card with a very competitive four year old hurdle. Last year’s Triumph Hurdle third, Allmankind, makes his reappearance in this race and looks to have every chance. He holds quite a few of these on form from last year so in theory, he should make a winning return. However, I’m not sure it will be that simple and I wasn’t quite sure that the Triumph was his best running. He didn’t seem to travel with the same exuberance and given I backed him that day, I was of the feeling he ran a little flat. I would be willing to take him on as he is plenty short for his reappearance and I would be willing to see what he has in the locker this year before going back to the well.
Strategem is a very unexposed French recruit and Anna Bunina brings solid, if a little unspectacular, form to the table from Ireland. However, last year I was very impressed by Botox Has, and he is a horse I really hope can scale to a high rank this year. He finished behind Allmankind last year at Cheltenham, which is an obvious concern, but I still think he was quite immature that day and didn’t jump with enough fluency. He came back over C&D in December when devouring a pretty solid field by five lengths and I am hoping he can return in that fettle. Despite not seeing him for the rest of last year, he was reported to be in decent shape and was waiting for Aintree, so I’m not too concerned and I’m very hopeful of a big run.
3.15 - 3m (2m7f208y) (Old) Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle
Selection: Goodbye Dancer (20/1) EW
Yet another race which looks like a fascinating betting proposition with 18 runners and some bookmakers paying out five places - which I would always take! These Pertemps Qualifiers are often the trickiest to decipher as it’s hard to know which horses are there to win, and which have future targets in mind.
The one that I have taken against the field, which should be there to run his race, is Goodbye Dancer. As I alluded to earlier, Fergal O’Brien has been in great early season form and this horse simply lights up when it’s around Cheltenham. Having made the switch to Fergal from Nigel Twiston-Davies, he won over C&D last December on stable debut off a mark of 124. However, what was maybe more impressive, was how well he was travelling a month later when departing at the final flight off a mark ten pounds higher.
Since then he has been taken away from Cheltenham, and his form has dived heavily as a result - his mark has tumbled back down to 126. In two outings this season, he has failed to beat a rival home so it is a bit of a leap of faith to back this horse on his return to his most favoured track. Back down to a feather weight over a C&D he loves, he could just turn up with a big run at an attractive price.
3.50 - 3m1f (Old) Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap Chase
Selection: Bob Mahler (12/1) EW
The headline act of the whole ‘Showcase Meeting’ is the return of Frodon, back in Handicap company, to his favourite track. He has put in some mighty performances with big weights on his back in the past, but it would be more the trip that would still temper my enthusiasm with this very likeable horse. I don’t fully believe he gets the 3m1f around here and his task won’t be helped by the weight on his back. Manofthemountain has made giant strides as a chaser in recent times, but this is a different contest overall and I think he is plenty short for a horse with not much big handicap exposure and experience. It’s very tempting to have a go on Cogry, but his price is a small bit short for me and given the veteran is 11 years old now, you’d be surprised if there was not something to beat him.
I will instead be siding with Bob Mahler, who is a seasoned veteran of these staying handicaps in his own right. However, he is still only eight years old and if last year was any indicator, this horse is still progressing with time and with more runs. He dug down deep to land the Edinburgh National over 4m1f at Musselburgh last year by a short head and backed that up with a very honest and game third in the Kim Muir at the festival. He did pull up in this race last year but the going that day was very testing and didn’t suit some horses and he had previously won over C&D back in April 2019 so there is some substance to his Cheltenham form.
His record fresh would temper some enthusiasm but that is being factored into his price, which seems big given his overall profile. There could well be more to come from this horse this year off a mark of 142 and I’m excited to see how he fairs.
